* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/19/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 46 43 37 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 46 43 37 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 48 45 42 36 29 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 6 2 2 3 6 1 3 6 6 9 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 4 6 2 2 1 2 -1 5 1 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 342 338 176 183 20 48 268 327 253 253 209 215 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.5 25.3 24.6 24.1 22.9 21.9 21.5 21.5 22.1 22.3 22.0 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 119 117 110 104 91 80 76 75 81 83 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 71 69 63 61 54 53 49 46 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 23 22 18 17 15 13 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 28 25 27 22 27 41 34 31 22 30 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 51 84 59 32 -4 -20 1 -1 -14 -16 -9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 1 -2 -12 -4 0 0 1 3 5 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 699 748 789 838 903 989 1096 1212 1346 1475 1597 1697 1834 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.4 21.4 22.0 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.3 117.4 118.6 119.7 121.8 123.8 125.6 127.2 128.7 130.0 131.5 133.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -18. -25. -30. -34. -39. -44. -50. -56. -57. -57. -58. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.8 115.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##