* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/20/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 37 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 37 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 38 34 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 4 4 6 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 326 354 358 292 306 275 277 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.1 22.6 22.0 21.6 21.1 20.7 20.7 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 94 88 81 77 71 66 66 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 60 60 55 54 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 16 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 6 11 22 20 21 17 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 5 -8 -14 8 3 11 -13 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 2 0 -5 -1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 909 961 1009 1059 1114 1204 1285 1391 1471 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.2 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.2 122.3 123.2 124.1 125.5 126.7 127.9 128.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. -25. -30. -34. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -27. -34. -41. -47. -49. -50. -53. -55. -58. -59. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.9 120.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/20/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/20/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##