* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/26/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 40 44 51 64 73 84 93 98 97 92 88 82 76 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 40 44 51 64 73 84 93 98 97 92 88 82 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 43 47 53 59 68 79 84 80 70 57 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 16 18 18 14 17 9 11 10 11 14 6 2 3 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 0 0 4 2 2 1 3 4 5 6 6 3 1 SHEAR DIR 52 49 40 33 39 29 30 20 352 27 43 47 27 25 256 350 22 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.0 27.8 26.1 24.7 24.3 23.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 152 153 153 154 155 157 155 155 142 125 109 105 98 93 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 71 71 68 69 71 74 74 75 77 75 76 73 65 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 16 18 22 24 28 33 36 36 35 33 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 13 14 20 19 28 41 34 42 36 40 18 23 6 2 4 200 MB DIV 22 29 47 64 73 84 97 94 108 98 81 126 54 49 37 45 -9 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -11 -11 -5 -4 -2 6 6 6 0 LAND (KM) 632 653 677 704 740 820 886 979 1071 1071 1084 1104 1082 1136 1205 1268 1361 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 103.1 104.1 105.1 106.0 107.8 109.4 111.2 113.0 114.8 116.6 118.3 120.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 33 31 23 19 18 21 22 21 22 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 13. 19. 25. 27. 25. 22. 18. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 29. 38. 49. 58. 63. 62. 57. 53. 47. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 102.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/26/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.96 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.3% 11.2% 10.4% 0.0% 12.3% 12.7% 15.1% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.6% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 1.4% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 0.0% 4.3% 4.8% 7.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/26/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##