* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/27/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 38 44 53 64 77 87 91 86 81 76 70 66 62 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 37 38 44 53 64 77 87 91 86 81 76 70 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 38 43 50 59 67 71 67 59 52 46 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 20 14 17 12 10 9 6 8 17 15 9 4 6 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 0 1 -1 -2 0 5 2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 38 38 36 30 32 44 29 330 4 48 69 54 58 352 296 310 294 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.3 25.7 24.7 23.9 23.1 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 155 156 156 157 155 154 151 137 120 109 101 93 93 93 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 72 71 76 76 75 74 76 78 77 73 68 63 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 15 18 19 24 27 31 32 30 28 26 24 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 27 24 30 48 55 58 55 55 53 44 45 49 47 40 57 200 MB DIV 71 72 83 74 71 103 100 122 119 127 96 82 49 22 15 -10 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -2 -8 -7 -6 -5 -6 -4 0 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 705 722 751 782 822 914 1020 1063 1087 1099 1081 1090 1162 1207 1264 1379 1532 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.8 17.2 18.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.5 106.4 107.4 108.4 110.4 112.4 114.2 115.8 117.3 118.8 120.3 121.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 19 18 19 21 20 21 21 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 17. 22. 24. 20. 16. 12. 9. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 9. 18. 29. 42. 52. 56. 51. 46. 41. 35. 31. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 104.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 26.5% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 3.1% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 5.8% 11.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##