* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FRANK EP072022 07/27/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 41 49 59 71 87 95 97 90 84 78 72 67 62
V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 41 49 59 71 87 95 97 90 84 78 72 67 62
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 38 42 49 58 67 75 73 63 54 48 43 39 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 23 18 14 18 12 9 11 4 5 9 8 4 4 2 3 5 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 4 5 0 0 -3 -6 -4
SHEAR DIR 36 26 19 27 38 20 339 314 69 56 44 51 146 348 305 360 283
SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.7 27.6 26.0 24.6 24.3 23.3 22.6 21.9 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 161 162 160 156 154 150 151 140 123 108 105 94 87 80 86
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.0 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1
700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 74 76 76 74 75 77 74 73 68 61 58 55 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 21 24 28 34 37 38 34 31 29 26 24 22
850 MB ENV VOR 15 27 25 33 41 50 46 62 52 56 49 59 60 65 50 44 56
200 MB DIV 72 74 69 60 91 130 121 126 110 124 73 93 27 29 5 -8 -19
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -6 -8 -6 -4 -5 -4 1 0 3 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 692 727 768 810 843 954 1042 1022 1065 1086 1059 1119 1203 1237 1275 1361 1522
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.8 18.3 19.3 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.4 107.4 108.4 109.3 111.4 113.1 114.8 116.7 118.3 119.8 121.4 123.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 22 21 23 24 23 23 18 17 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 26. 25. 24. 21. 19. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 27. 30. 31. 24. 19. 15. 11. 8. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 6. 14. 24. 36. 52. 60. 62. 55. 49. 43. 37. 32. 27.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 105.4
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.95 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 15.1% 13.6% 12.7% 0.0% 15.8% 16.3% 35.9%
Logistic: 0.4% 4.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 2.4% 4.4% 4.5%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3%
Consensus: 1.5% 6.6% 5.0% 4.4% 0.1% 6.1% 7.0% 13.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/27/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##