* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GEORGETTE EP082022 07/28/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 51 53 53 50 47 45 44 43 41 40 39
V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 51 53 53 50 47 45 44 43 41 40 39
V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 49 50 50 50 48 44 40 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 12 14 14 10 8 13 17 27 31 33 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 3 0 -2 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 116 94 97 93 106 99 120 100 90 78 76 89 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.3 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 147 145 143 143 144 145 140 139 142 136 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -53.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 53 55 55 57 57 57 58 59 63 72 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 68 81 94 110 124 124 124 126 119 96 68 59 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 22 25 34 42 67 91 101 101 45 20 78 115 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 9 -3 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 971 1064 1159 1228 1290 1419 1521 1578 1691 1661 1490 1320 1180 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.9 15.7 16.9 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.2 118.1 118.7 119.4 121.0 122.0 122.8 124.3 124.2 122.8 121.8 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 7 7 4 6 4 5 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 12 15 16 14 11 12 12 10 10 10 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 20. 21. 21. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 10. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 116.2
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -3.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 18.6% 17.9% 17.1% 10.2% 18.2% 16.3% 12.7%
Logistic: 2.2% 5.9% 4.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 8.3% 7.4% 6.1% 3.8% 6.4% 5.6% 4.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##