* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 52 55 57 57 55 53 50 46 44 44 43 43 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 52 55 57 57 55 53 50 46 44 44 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 52 53 54 56 57 56 53 49 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 12 9 15 16 14 21 26 25 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 2 0 4 2 0 3 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 94 99 97 106 107 79 80 96 79 81 91 81 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.9 25.5 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 147 146 149 149 144 140 138 131 117 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 59 62 63 63 64 64 67 70 74 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 96 110 120 126 110 103 93 83 76 79 59 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 43 59 95 82 93 81 53 53 76 95 48 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 0 0 2 1 3 4 1 -2 -1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 1157 1237 1314 1391 1483 1510 1506 1447 1383 1314 1231 1121 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.5 15.1 14.8 14.4 13.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.3 18.5 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.8 118.4 119.1 119.7 120.3 120.9 121.9 121.9 121.9 122.1 122.1 121.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 3 4 5 3 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 16 17 15 15 18 17 12 10 8 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 5. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 117.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 22.2% 17.2% 15.9% 0.0% 18.4% 15.4% 11.1% Logistic: 0.9% 2.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.3% 6.5% 5.6% 0.1% 6.3% 5.2% 3.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##