* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 49 51 54 54 54 55 55 54 54 53 53 53 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 49 51 54 54 54 55 55 54 54 53 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 48 49 49 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 10 12 14 17 18 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 113 115 107 94 88 84 86 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 145 147 146 146 146 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 59 59 60 57 60 68 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 109 120 127 126 123 120 98 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 44 53 75 75 70 66 36 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 0 0 1 1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1167 1252 1336 1411 1487 1566 1619 1587 1485 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.5 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.0 13.7 14.0 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.0 119.7 120.4 121.1 121.9 122.3 122.2 121.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 3 1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 13 14 14 15 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 118.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 20.3% 15.7% 14.3% 0.0% 16.6% 14.5% 10.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.0% 6.3% 5.1% 0.2% 5.7% 4.9% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##