* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 68 77 86 98 104 99 88 76 65 54 45 36 31 24 18 V (KT) LAND 55 61 68 77 86 98 104 99 88 76 65 54 45 36 31 24 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 72 78 91 94 86 73 60 50 40 33 28 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 4 3 4 7 6 6 5 3 5 4 9 12 11 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -1 1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 349 350 304 349 13 21 48 58 88 254 312 237 261 263 279 283 285 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.4 25.8 24.7 23.6 22.1 21.4 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 157 153 150 146 138 121 110 98 82 75 70 69 70 72 75 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 75 78 76 79 76 72 69 62 60 59 58 51 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 34 30 27 25 22 20 18 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 33 37 50 47 57 61 86 74 64 44 47 28 17 -2 -12 200 MB DIV 116 113 127 125 121 74 107 91 87 17 1 -8 8 1 17 -8 -5 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -9 -8 -6 -6 0 -5 0 -1 4 -2 2 1 5 3 5 LAND (KM) 978 1006 1042 1029 1022 1017 1034 1052 1107 1130 1161 1221 1319 1333 1365 1398 1407 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 16.1 17.3 18.5 19.9 20.9 21.9 23.1 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.6 116.5 118.2 119.9 121.7 123.2 124.5 126.0 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 10 8 5 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 20 17 16 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 15. 12. 7. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 22. 31. 43. 49. 44. 33. 21. 10. -1. -10. -19. -24. -31. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.0 111.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 12.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 12.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 16.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 15.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 14.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 9.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -12.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 1.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 6.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.4% 80.0% 75.5% 69.0% 53.4% 63.8% 51.5% 14.6% Logistic: 21.9% 64.8% 52.6% 44.9% 14.8% 52.4% 31.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 23.4% 54.7% 62.8% 39.0% 8.6% 21.2% 5.4% 0.0% Consensus: 26.9% 66.5% 63.6% 51.0% 25.6% 45.8% 29.4% 5.6% DTOPS: 37.0% 69.0% 55.0% 44.0% 35.0% 60.0% 57.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##