* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 43 43 43 44 47 46 48 47 46 46 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 43 43 43 44 47 46 48 47 46 46 46 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 41 39 37 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 18 17 18 14 12 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 5 6 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 81 88 95 95 84 91 59 56 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.7 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 143 141 138 139 139 141 138 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 45 45 46 47 48 49 52 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 49 44 30 19 -8 -8 -2 15 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 51 48 27 4 -20 6 7 57 57 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1896 1968 2041 2110 2178 2198 2174 2149 2016 1907 1836 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.1 127.8 128.5 129.2 129.6 129.5 129.5 128.7 128.1 127.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 4 1 1 4 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 126.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.9% 10.7% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##