* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GEORGETTE EP082022 07/31/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 35 35 36 39 41 44 45 45 45 46 46 46 46
V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 35 35 36 39 41 44 45 45 45 46 46 46 46
V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 32 31 29 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 20 20 15 12 13 11 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 4 5 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 97 97 93 95 105 107 70 59 72 62 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 139 139 139 136 135 132 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 46 49 49 51 49 47 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 44 26 6 -7 -8 -17 -4 -13 -17 -17 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 41 37 3 -8 2 12 20 42 9 -32 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 2163 2207 2252 2266 2281 2264 2217 2129 2059 2004 1989 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.5 130.0 130.2 130.4 130.4 130.2 129.9 129.7 129.6 129.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 1 2 3 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 129.0
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.10 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.93 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.6% 9.3% 7.8% 4.8% 9.1% 9.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 1.7% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##