* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/31/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 60 54 47 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 60 54 47 37 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 58 52 46 36 29 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 9 9 3 8 6 13 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 -1 3 2 0 -1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 156 202 241 282 274 306 244 260 216 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 23.9 23.0 22.3 21.5 20.7 20.1 19.9 19.4 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 102 92 85 77 68 62 60 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 64 60 55 53 48 46 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 28 28 26 24 22 18 15 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 39 30 29 10 12 -10 -18 -18 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 49 42 2 -21 -5 -1 -7 4 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 8 4 6 4 0 6 -4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 957 970 965 952 951 965 1000 932 820 705 580 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.0 22.7 24.4 26.1 27.9 29.5 31.1 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.5 121.2 121.9 122.6 123.9 125.2 126.2 126.6 126.6 126.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -19. -26. -32. -37. -42. -46. -51. -55. -60. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -29. -32. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -33. -45. -54. -64. -71. -80. -82. -83. -84. -87. -90. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.7 119.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/31/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/31/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##