* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GEORGETTE EP082022 07/31/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 24 23 25 29 31 35 36 37 37 36 37 37 37 38
V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 24 23 25 29 31 35 36 37 37 36 37 37 37 38
V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 23 22 20 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 14 20 21 15 10 14 14 14 10 9 6 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 5 1 0 -2 0 0 -3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 87 94 107 120 101 71 54 61 89 113 129 143 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 138 137 136 131 128 124 122 121 122 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 49 51 50 48 50 47 47 45 41 33 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -1 -17 -17 -23 -29 -12 -29 -20 -24 -7 7 26 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -18 -30 -14 -2 6 37 5 -14 -50 -28 11 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 2287 2304 2322 2309 2296 2248 2160 2081 2051 2093 2203 2229 2094 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.2 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.2 130.4 130.5 130.5 130.4 130.2 130.1 130.3 131.1 132.5 134.0 135.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 2 2 4 5 3 3 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 22. 23. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -5. -1. 1. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 129.9
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 1.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 0.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.57 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 3.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/31/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##