* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092022 08/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 44 49 51 51 48 45 43 40 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 44 49 51 51 48 45 43 40 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 34 35 35 34 31 29 28 26 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 6 3 11 9 7 6 5 5 8 6 3 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 1 0 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 271 249 207 217 198 166 173 188 218 233 272 259 246 176 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.7 26.5 25.7 25.0 24.2 23.5 22.6 22.4 21.9 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 152 150 141 128 119 112 103 96 87 85 80 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 70 69 66 60 57 52 50 44 44 41 39 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 17 18 19 20 19 19 17 16 14 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 3 17 29 46 46 39 38 27 27 22 18 16 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 25 24 25 30 18 1 -3 -25 -21 -27 -5 -18 -8 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -2 -4 4 0 2 0 4 5 7 6 2 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 544 571 605 556 515 523 543 584 649 702 806 918 1053 1206 1384 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.2 23.3 23.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.6 110.5 111.3 112.1 113.9 115.5 117.0 118.4 119.8 121.3 122.9 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 12 10 11 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 21. 22. 21. 18. 15. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 19. 21. 21. 18. 15. 13. 10. 9. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 NINE 08/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.7% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.6% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 NINE 08/07/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##