* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 38 39 39 36 33 31 28 23 23 24 25 25 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 38 39 39 36 33 31 28 23 23 24 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 39 38 36 33 29 25 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 0 4 9 10 9 12 12 14 15 13 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -1 2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 215 223 226 237 193 190 212 213 239 227 237 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.4 25.7 25.1 23.8 23.2 22.6 22.1 21.9 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 148 142 138 120 114 100 93 86 81 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 63 60 54 50 45 43 38 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 28 34 42 40 27 20 16 3 4 -12 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 28 3 1 -1 -1 -4 -12 -8 -16 -8 -15 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 4 11 5 4 5 2 6 4 6 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 561 491 444 449 449 476 565 609 699 809 947 1096 1260 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.1 24.7 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.0 112.7 113.5 114.3 116.1 117.9 119.5 121.1 122.5 123.9 125.4 127.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 12 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 111.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 17.7% 12.9% 11.3% 0.0% 11.8% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 3.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.1% 5.1% 4.0% 0.1% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##