* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HOWARD EP092022 08/08/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 51 51 48 45 39 34 30 25 21 20 20 19 18
V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 51 51 48 45 39 34 30 25 21 20 20 19 18
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 52 51 49 45 39 33 28 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 2 8 9 9 5 10 11 14 14 16 15 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 178 204 220 240 232 224 198 221 225 247 234 243 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.0 25.4 24.4 23.3 22.8 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 142 135 123 117 106 94 88 83 80 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 61 58 55 50 45 41 39 37 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 44 30 24 16 8 0 -4 -16 -23 -24 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 28 7 3 2 -12 0 -23 -17 -33 8 -33 -23 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -3 6 10 4 1 8 6 7 7 5 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 510 476 474 469 466 541 607 689 778 905 1048 1192 1328 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.9 23.7 24.3 24.7 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.0 113.8 114.7 115.6 117.2 119.0 120.7 122.0 123.4 124.8 126.2 127.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. -0. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. -25. -25. -26. -27.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.8 112.2
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/08/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 3.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 4.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -3.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 21.2% 19.7% 18.8% 11.4% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.7% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.9% 7.9% 7.1% 6.4% 3.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/08/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##