* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092022 08/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 63 59 51 44 37 31 29 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 63 59 51 44 37 31 29 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 61 57 48 41 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 6 5 7 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 211 181 194 154 203 219 263 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.2 23.1 22.3 21.8 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 118 111 104 92 84 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 54 51 46 42 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 20 15 8 7 -3 -7 -17 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -21 -19 -24 -21 9 -6 -9 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 3 4 4 8 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 513 548 602 640 662 724 830 933 1051 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.9 24.4 24.7 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.7 117.6 118.4 119.2 120.8 122.4 123.7 125.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -26. -29. -32. -35. -39. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -7. -11. -19. -26. -33. -39. -41. -42. -44. -45. -45. -45. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.4 115.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 HOWARD 08/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 463.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 HOWARD 08/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##