* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902022 08/12/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 27 28 25 22 23 21 22 23 25 27 28 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 27 28 25 22 23 21 22 23 25 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 26 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 24 26 28 26 30 30 29 20 28 31 32 23 27 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 2 1 1 -3 -6 -6 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 251 246 249 255 253 266 270 274 275 259 268 263 281 286 295 304 SST (C) 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 143 143 144 146 145 146 146 146 145 147 148 149 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 48 51 53 53 53 56 59 61 63 61 61 60 61 60 61 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -6 -1 1 1 7 14 17 7 -4 -11 -10 -13 -9 -2 0 0 200 MB DIV 4 3 8 6 -10 -14 11 19 0 30 -10 2 -10 10 -12 16 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 0 -1 1 1 2 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 986 1096 1209 1320 1433 1618 1791 1941 2075 2186 2272 2364 2441 2500 2564 2638 2726 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.6 168.9 170.1 171.2 172.3 174.2 176.0 177.7 179.2 180.5 181.5 182.5 183.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 17 14 19 36 31 25 26 28 37 50 50 45 48 52 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -16. -19. -22. -25. -26. -26. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -8. -7. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 167.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##