* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IVETTE EP102022 08/16/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 28 25 20 18 17 17 17 19 21 25 28 31
V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 28 25 20 18 17 17 17 19 21 25 28 31
V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 25 24 21 20 21 19 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 92 91 90 87 92 97 100 108 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 140 138 136 136 130 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 57 60 58 60 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 31 27 30 18 13 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -2 -3 3 15 16 3 -21 -29 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 782 799 817 833 851 904 947 1017 1099 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.1 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.8 115.2 115.7 116.1 117.1 118.1 119.0 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 5 6 8 9 8 6 6 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. -9. -5. -2. 1.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 114.4
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102022 IVETTE 08/16/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102022 IVETTE 08/16/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##