* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL052022 09/01/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 56 66 76 85 91 96 97 99 96 94 92 92
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 56 66 76 85 91 96 97 99 96 94 92 92
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 39 43 51 58 66 73 79 81 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 12 11 15 14 16 13 6 6 7 6 15 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -6 -7 -9 -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 30 13 352 331 301 293 275 300 282 206 193 182 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 124 124 123 123 124 124 125 126 118 112 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 97 97 96 96 97 96 97 100 96 91 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -56.6 -57.0 -57.1 -57.0 -56.9 -56.2 -56.0 -55.3 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 50 48 49 49 48 50 52 58 59 60 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 11 14 17 20 22 24 26 29 31 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -69 -61 -53 -44 -42 -30 -26 -18 -7 15 27 41 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 0 6 -4 -15 -13 -9 22 0 11 20 28 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 3 3 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1155 1157 1160 1172 1184 1208 1207 1202 1192 1155 1111 1095 1112 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 8 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 24. 26. 29. 26. 25. 22. 21.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 36. 46. 55. 61. 66. 67. 69. 66. 64. 62. 62.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.1 45.2
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 INVEST 09/01/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 0.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 5.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 7.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.2% 9.8% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 4.9% 8.1% 5.6%
Bayesian: 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 5.3% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 3.6% 5.1% 1.9%
DTOPS: 2.0% 29.0% 16.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 INVEST 09/01/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 INVEST 09/01/2022 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 46 56 66 76 85 91 96 97 99 96 94 92 92
18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 52 62 72 81 87 92 93 95 92 90 88 88
12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 45 55 65 74 80 85 86 88 85 83 81 81
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 45 55 64 70 75 76 78 75 73 71 71
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT