* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EARL AL062022 09/05/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 61 69 78 87 91 96 100 106 97 85 80
V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 61 69 78 87 91 96 100 106 97 85 80
V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 50 51 55 61 68 76 85 93 102 102 86 69 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 19 14 18 22 21 29 20 18 7 13 13 29 28 30 21 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 5 2 -4 -4 -6 -3 0 4 3 6 4 -7 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 251 263 234 234 255 260 270 273 273 300 277 259 258 241 220 209 188
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.6 28.8 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 145 146 148 153 155 165 163 163 149 157 151 153 147
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 132 130 128 127 127 131 133 141 141 141 129 132 125 124 119
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -50.8 -50.1 -49.4 -49.5 -50.5 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.7 1.7 1.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 7 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 54 52 54 54 56 58 58 61 60 63 64 60 46 36 46 46 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 19 20 23 27 32 37 38 41 45 53 50 43 38
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -19 -9 5 -1 1 1 14 20 45 61 112 171 153 178 207 217
200 MB DIV 17 5 37 52 34 39 13 17 7 52 51 50 31 2 -9 17 -10
700-850 TADV 4 8 5 3 3 7 4 3 3 6 26 26 24 -1 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 242 304 369 435 502 611 700 809 923 1063 1221 1341 1270 1197 1162 1120 1033
LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.0 24.0 24.8 25.8 26.8 28.0 29.3 31.0 32.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.5 65.6 65.6 65.6 65.8 65.8 65.6 65.2 64.7 63.8 62.4 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 12 11 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 59 54 55 51 41 35 41 54 36 30 26 24 22 23 26 20 30
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 13. 19. 26. 28. 30. 35. 43. 37. 25. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 24. 33. 42. 46. 51. 55. 61. 52. 40. 35.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.6 65.4
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.02 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.3% 6.3% 4.6% 2.8% 7.1% 6.7% 7.1%
Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 2.9% 2.4% 1.7% 1.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7%
DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 10.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/05/2022 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 50 52 56 61 69 78 87 91 96 100 106 97 85 80
18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 54 59 67 76 85 89 94 98 104 95 83 78
12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 49 54 62 71 80 84 89 93 99 90 78 73
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 46 54 63 72 76 81 85 91 82 70 65
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT