* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 88 94 103 104 101 88 69 54 42 33 25 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 88 94 103 104 101 88 69 54 42 33 25 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 85 88 93 92 86 71 54 43 36 31 27 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 23 18 14 6 2 9 9 8 2 8 8 14 9 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 3 1 0 -3 0 -5 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 18 11 8 20 26 59 235 262 228 231 193 237 218 229 230 259 286 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.7 26.9 25.9 24.0 23.7 22.9 23.2 20.9 20.8 21.0 21.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 148 147 151 133 123 103 99 90 93 68 66 68 68 67 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -49.8 -50.1 -49.7 -50.3 -50.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 84 82 84 84 82 81 81 74 68 62 60 63 58 49 39 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 36 37 40 44 45 46 42 34 29 24 22 20 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 80 83 78 82 87 94 110 103 103 98 65 38 35 17 22 6 7 200 MB DIV 121 126 115 111 99 95 95 72 34 14 14 18 9 -2 -10 -11 -38 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -11 -9 -6 6 9 17 0 -4 -1 -3 -4 -9 -11 -13 LAND (KM) 480 496 531 568 518 435 365 228 162 95 191 274 382 470 519 554 579 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.9 21.7 23.7 25.8 27.5 28.6 29.5 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.4 111.3 112.7 113.5 114.2 114.9 115.9 117.2 118.7 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 14 12 25 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -30. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 14. 3. -4. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 24. 33. 34. 31. 18. -1. -16. -28. -37. -45. -52. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.8% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 13.4% 7.2% Logistic: 3.1% 15.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.2% 6.9% 12.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 13.9% 7.8% 0.9% 0.7% 8.4% 8.7% 2.5% DTOPS: 31.0% 72.0% 59.0% 48.0% 33.0% 44.0% 8.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##