* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 68 65 62 59 54 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 68 65 62 59 54 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 67 62 57 53 49 46 45 42 38 36 38 40 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 20 21 25 15 4 30 50 35 26 21 15 28 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 4 0 0 2 8 6 -1 -1 5 -3 -6 -5 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 215 213 206 223 219 195 159 90 319 303 281 252 251 228 301 293 293 SST (C) 24.6 24.3 23.9 20.9 19.7 19.2 16.5 17.3 19.2 21.1 20.5 20.3 20.7 20.3 19.7 19.7 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 98 83 79 77 69 71 78 86 83 82 82 81 78 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 85 83 74 71 69 63 65 71 76 75 73 72 72 69 66 66 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -56.1 -55.9 -55.0 -53.4 -51.8 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -52.7 -54.2 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 1.3 3.2 3.6 1.9 1.7 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 48 50 55 54 56 57 66 68 60 54 51 53 54 45 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 33 32 31 33 33 32 28 24 19 16 14 9 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 74 83 79 82 86 112 137 177 201 191 203 240 216 170 100 22 -44 200 MB DIV 13 31 61 29 19 78 20 53 -15 -3 -24 -1 -8 -4 -4 12 -7 700-850 TADV -2 1 -1 13 16 19 9 4 0 -3 -25 -53 -42 -33 -9 7 -9 LAND (KM) 1199 1278 1354 1409 1473 1520 1423 1285 1446 1553 1203 845 631 382 224 179 107 LAT (DEG N) 43.0 43.7 44.4 45.5 46.5 48.7 50.9 50.2 47.5 45.8 44.9 43.9 42.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.8 37.3 35.9 34.6 33.4 32.3 33.5 35.4 33.5 29.3 23.9 19.5 16.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 14 12 11 6 8 15 18 18 14 11 12 9 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -26. -33. -37. -40. -44. -47. -51. -53. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -24. -30. -33. -38. -36. -38. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -27. -43. -57. -65. -68. -74. -73. -78. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 43.0 38.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 2( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 70 68 65 62 59 54 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 63 60 57 52 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 61 58 55 50 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 54 51 46 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT