* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DANIELLE AL052022 09/07/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 62 60 57 54 45 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 62 60 57 54 45 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 70 67 63 59 56 51 48 48 49 48 45 41 40 41 41 39 36
Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 17 22 21 22 22 12 3 38 45 44 38 30 23 10 26 28 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 3 1 4 0 -10 -6 -1 0 2 -2 -5 -3 -1 2
SHEAR DIR 206 214 221 210 200 178 267 294 306 318 301 268 224 252 279 267 286
SST (C) 23.7 21.6 20.6 19.6 18.7 17.0 17.4 19.3 20.8 20.2 20.8 20.2 18.1 19.7 18.1 18.3 17.8
POT. INT. (KT) 97 86 82 79 75 70 71 79 85 84 85 81 75 79 74 74 72
ADJ. POT. INT. 83 75 73 71 68 64 64 71 77 77 77 74 69 71 67 67 66
200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -55.2 -54.6 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -54.6 -55.2 -54.8 -55.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.6 3.1 1.9 1.4 2.5 1.5 1.2 3.2 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 45 48 53 52 50 52 51 53 54 56 58 66 70 70 66 50 36
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 32 32 32 31 26 25 23 22 20 19 19 14 9 4
850 MB ENV VOR 79 88 93 118 123 141 169 155 139 155 189 155 157 91 51 46 -60
200 MB DIV 59 37 36 42 53 31 -2 -28 5 1 7 40 53 38 36 5 -21
700-850 TADV 7 15 27 37 15 9 8 8 -8 -9 -10 -10 -5 -8 -15 -33 -33
LAND (KM) 1376 1438 1506 1535 1560 1479 1343 1494 1488 1134 700 342 58 156 185 127 89
LAT (DEG N) 44.4 45.3 46.1 47.4 48.6 50.4 49.7 47.8 45.8 43.7 41.9 41.7 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 35.6 34.4 33.1 32.4 31.6 32.7 34.6 32.8 28.3 23.1 17.5 13.0 9.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 11 6 6 15 19 22 19 15 13 12 11 10 8
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -22. -28. -34. -38. -41. -45. -48. -52. -54. -55. -56.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -16. -20. -23. -27. -27. -28. -32. -38. -42.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -25. -36. -48. -56. -64. -67. -69. -78. -86. -94.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 44.4 35.6
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/2022 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 66 62 60 57 54 45 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 70 69 66 62 60 57 54 45 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 70 67 66 62 60 57 54 45 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 55 52 43 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT