* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 73 67 61 50 40 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 73 67 61 50 40 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 68 61 54 43 35 30 27 25 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 10 7 11 10 4 14 11 14 13 16 12 13 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 7 6 0 4 0 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 275 275 247 220 248 266 262 228 229 229 244 255 236 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 25.1 23.9 23.5 24.2 23.4 23.1 22.3 21.6 20.8 20.9 21.3 22.7 23.1 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 115 102 98 105 96 92 83 75 66 67 73 87 89 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 74 72 67 63 60 60 64 57 47 39 33 27 23 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 35 37 33 29 23 17 13 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 74 84 90 90 90 53 35 17 -7 8 0 10 16 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 61 63 83 71 5 43 26 2 1 -3 -10 0 -10 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 14 9 16 17 -6 -12 -6 -7 -7 -10 -11 -11 -11 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 251 158 152 105 42 73 126 217 312 382 455 518 533 559 564 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.8 24.9 26.1 27.2 29.0 30.3 31.0 31.2 31.1 30.6 29.7 28.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.4 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.9 117.4 118.8 120.0 121.0 121.6 121.6 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 6 6 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -13. -18. -24. -31. -37. -43. -48. -53. -56. -60. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -3. -6. -11. -19. -30. -36. -38. -37. -37. -36. -34. -32. -29. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -13. -19. -30. -40. -52. -61. -68. -74. -79. -83. -87. -91. -93. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.6 112.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##