* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 63 56 50 44 35 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 63 56 50 44 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 68 60 54 49 40 34 30 26 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 11 11 6 4 9 13 13 14 13 13 15 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 2 1 -1 2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 277 234 221 204 238 226 282 230 236 224 245 237 238 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 23.9 24.2 24.6 23.7 23.3 22.7 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 103 106 110 100 95 88 78 76 73 69 71 74 77 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 67 63 60 63 61 61 52 41 34 30 28 24 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 34 29 27 22 17 14 11 10 10 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 82 90 94 79 52 35 5 8 3 6 4 9 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 70 67 65 32 18 30 17 -10 4 -5 1 7 0 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 11 11 22 7 -7 -6 -3 -6 -4 -6 -4 -8 -10 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 135 132 50 3 72 48 139 238 281 338 408 440 428 438 410 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.2 26.4 27.5 28.6 30.3 31.4 31.7 31.3 30.8 30.2 29.5 28.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.6 113.9 114.6 115.2 116.5 118.1 119.4 119.7 120.1 120.6 120.6 120.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 9 7 4 2 3 3 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -33. -38. -44. -49. -53. -58. -61. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -18. -26. -33. -36. -36. -35. -33. -32. -30. -28. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -25. -31. -40. -49. -58. -65. -70. -75. -79. -84. -89. -91. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.9 113.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##