* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122022 09/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 59 53 47 41 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 68 59 53 47 41 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 63 56 51 43 38 33 28 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 9 6 5 9 10 13 15 16 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 244 230 209 223 286 268 256 238 229 232 239 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.6 24.0 24.1 24.3 23.7 22.3 21.2 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.7 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 103 104 106 99 83 71 61 68 73 76 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 3 3 4 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 64 61 60 61 62 58 48 39 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 28 26 24 19 16 14 11 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 80 87 86 82 51 39 12 -3 0 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 60 48 27 19 27 25 11 -3 9 -11 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 14 17 3 -9 -12 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 69 17 86 35 113 212 279 344 426 431 423 424 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.4 27.5 28.6 29.6 31.0 31.5 31.7 31.4 30.7 29.7 28.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.2 114.8 115.4 116.0 117.6 119.0 119.9 120.8 121.1 120.6 120.1 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 10 8 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -18. -24. -31. -36. -41. -46. -51. -55. -59. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -25. -32. -33. -33. -33. -32. -29. -26. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -16. -22. -28. -34. -41. -51. -62. -68. -73. -79. -85. -85. -86. -87. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.2 113.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##