* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KAY EP122022 09/09/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 31 28 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 31 28 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 30 28 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 12 11 11 13 18 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 1 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 280 303 257 274 273 246 244 238 269 274 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 23.3 22.6 21.8 21.2 20.7 20.3 20.9 21.0 21.4 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 95 87 78 71 66 61 67 68 73 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -50.4 -51.0 -51.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 62 59 51 44 40 37 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 16 17 15 14 12 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 61 38 32 24 13 -4 2 -1 -4 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 19 22 27 11 0 -12 -9 -9 -2 -10 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 105 165 225 268 301 363 447 508 514 480 410 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.4 30.8 30.1 29.4 28.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.2 119.1 119.7 120.2 121.3 121.9 121.7 121.4 120.7 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -17. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -24. -32. -40. -49. -53. -57. -61. -66. -70. -74.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.8 117.4
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122022 KAY 09/09/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.61 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.15 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122022 KAY 09/09/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##