* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIONA AL072022 09/16/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 52 51 54 54 58 61 64 65 67 69 72 75 80
V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 52 51 54 54 58 51 50 57 59 61 64 67 72
V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 52 52 53 54 55 48 51 50 52 54 56 59 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 14 10 15 13 19 17 23 17 26 19 30 17 20 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 2 4 1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -5 -1 -2 -3 1 2
SHEAR DIR 272 280 289 305 297 297 283 287 274 288 253 274 256 284 278 301 297
SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 156 158 161 166 165 166 162 161 166 166 168 165 165 166 164
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 151 152 155 157 160 157 156 151 148 153 152 150 144 144 146 143
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 51 49 52 55 54 56 59 59 62 64 67 69 74 77 82 79 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 14 12 12 10 10 10 11 11 12 15 20 24 29
850 MB ENV VOR 8 -3 -3 3 1 0 26 20 28 20 38 28 41 32 48 31 36
200 MB DIV 32 0 -4 -3 8 27 38 49 81 71 93 74 103 73 74 57 64
700-850 TADV -9 -5 -5 -5 -9 -6 -10 -4 -1 5 0 1 -1 -1 2 5 9
LAND (KM) 785 708 650 627 517 304 125 68 64 -17 0 102 222 305 369 465 571
LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.5 58.7 59.9 61.2 63.3 65.2 66.7 67.8 68.8 69.9 70.8 71.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 55 64 66 66 57 57 85 92 82 80 82 63 61 65 72 83 65
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -8. -3. 2. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 19. 22. 26. 30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.1 56.2
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.0% 8.4% 8.0% 6.0% 9.7% 11.3% 14.8%
Logistic: 1.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 5.2% 11.2%
Bayesian: 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
Consensus: 2.2% 5.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2.1% 4.0% 5.5% 8.7%
DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/16/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 50 52 51 54 54 58 51 50 57 59 61 64 67 72
18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 51 50 53 53 57 50 49 56 58 60 63 66 71
12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 48 47 50 50 54 47 46 53 55 57 60 63 68
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 41 44 44 48 41 40 47 49 51 54 57 62
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT