* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIONA AL072022 09/17/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 65 70 76 81 85 89 94 98 96 92 88 81 81
V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 55 63 70 74 78 83 88 92 89 85 82 74 63
V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 56 51 58 63 69 76 83 89 92 91 90 82 75 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 9 12 17 20 14 20 16 23 22 21 15 19 19 26 32 62 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 3 0 3 -2 0 1 4 2 0 -1 12 19 1
SHEAR DIR 234 225 243 261 253 259 263 258 272 262 257 251 238 230 237 246 176
SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.5 27.3 26.7 17.0
POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 159 159 154 156 163 162 164 165 168 166 147 133 128 80
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 150 150 149 142 143 147 144 145 146 150 150 134 123 119 76
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -47.5 -43.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 1.5
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 8 9 7 2 0 0
700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 54 56 56 59 60 63 65 66 62 54 44 26 33 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 19 20 19 23 26 29 33 38 43 43 43 43 45 51
850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 41 43 50 46 38 33 41 48 71 60 48 58 126 174 314
200 MB DIV 72 75 62 76 83 81 78 87 74 56 84 73 94 54 38 9 50
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -1 5 10 12 17 11 12 8 16 20 11 -4 -39 0 10
LAND (KM) 239 161 89 33 -19 56 91 188 304 423 578 781 917 881 819 409 -21
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.1 19.0 20.1 21.4 22.5 23.6 25.0 26.8 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 64.1 64.8 65.5 66.2 66.9 68.1 69.0 69.9 70.5 70.8 70.8 70.3 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 8 11 15 20 26 33 36
HEAT CONTENT 71 89 89 73 67 64 66 65 74 76 54 39 35 21 15 10 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 22. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -16. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 29. 27. 25. 24. 24. 29.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 26. 31. 35. 39. 44. 48. 46. 42. 38. 31. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 64.1
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 2.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 3.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 32.7% 22.5% 13.8% 8.3% 15.7% 16.2% 13.7%
Logistic: 14.9% 25.8% 19.9% 17.4% 5.5% 7.4% 6.1% 2.3%
Bayesian: 3.1% 3.2% 4.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Consensus: 9.9% 20.6% 15.7% 10.7% 5.0% 7.9% 7.6% 5.4%
DTOPS: 19.0% 11.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 19.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/17/2022 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 57 61 55 63 70 74 78 83 88 92 89 85 82 74 63
18HR AGO 50 49 52 56 50 58 65 69 73 78 83 87 84 80 77 69 58
12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 44 52 59 63 67 72 77 81 78 74 71 63 52
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 34 42 49 53 57 62 67 71 68 64 61 53 42
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT