* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142022 09/19/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 51 47 40 33 28 24 22 21 21 20 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 51 47 40 33 28 24 22 21 21 20 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 54 50 41 34 29 25 22 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 24 25 21 20 12 9 5 5 2 6 7 6 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -8 -5 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 69 78 87 90 84 82 70 85 141 206 224 280 296 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.5 25.7 25.1 25.2 25.6 26.5 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.2 25.4 24.7 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 136 127 119 112 113 118 127 129 126 124 114 116 108 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 75 71 68 69 65 64 59 56 50 46 43 36 32 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 16 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 76 71 62 55 53 33 34 30 33 37 37 19 6 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 36 33 12 -9 -2 34 27 -12 -10 13 -5 -38 -18 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 1 1 3 3 2 5 2 5 0 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 251 200 190 205 297 361 438 558 682 798 919 1069 1177 1262 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.7 111.3 112.6 113.9 115.2 116.6 118.0 119.3 120.9 122.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -8. -15. -22. -27. -31. -33. -34. -34. -35. -33. -32. -30. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 108.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142022 MADELINE 09/19/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142022 MADELINE 09/19/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##