* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 53 51 51 52 49 41 34 31 26 22 21 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 53 51 51 52 49 41 34 31 26 22 21 21 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 51 48 49 50 47 44 40 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 25 25 27 28 21 14 31 25 15 13 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 2 1 0 -3 1 -7 0 -3 2 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 299 294 306 313 281 271 337 345 340 245 289 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 94 92 93 93 96 102 102 101 99 100 99 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 79 78 78 78 80 86 85 84 82 82 82 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -58.4 -58.7 -58.6 -58.6 -58.7 -58.3 -58.0 -57.3 -57.2 -56.4 -55.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.6 -0.8 -0.5 0.6 -1.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 33 34 38 43 47 48 43 34 28 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 21 19 18 19 17 13 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -58 -40 -37 -29 -13 -25 -60 -58 -63 -63 -86 -102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -23 -8 -23 -12 -15 0 -44 -40 -19 -13 -28 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -3 -6 -2 -5 -3 -8 -4 -4 -16 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1839 1777 1717 1724 1731 1800 1933 1749 1642 1545 1450 1334 1199 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.0 40.7 40.4 40.0 39.5 38.8 38.8 39.2 39.1 39.1 39.3 39.9 40.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.2 30.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 30.0 32.0 34.2 35.8 37.2 38.4 39.5 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 4 6 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -12. -19. -24. -29. -32. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -6. -14. -21. -24. -29. -33. -34. -34. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 41.0 31.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 53 51 51 52 49 41 34 31 26 22 21 21 22 23 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 50 50 51 48 40 33 30 25 21 20 20 21 22 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 47 48 45 37 30 27 22 18 17 17 18 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 43 44 41 33 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT