* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 47 48 52 46 38 33 29 26 22 20 20 20 22 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 47 48 52 46 38 33 29 26 22 20 20 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 46 46 47 47 44 41 39 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 26 26 18 20 11 32 34 16 20 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 0 -4 2 -4 -4 1 1 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 289 308 320 311 271 281 348 322 258 256 277 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.7 24.7 24.1 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 93 93 94 95 99 102 102 96 93 93 94 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 78 78 79 80 83 85 85 80 77 76 77 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.6 -58.7 -58.4 -58.5 -58.7 -58.3 -58.2 -57.7 -57.2 -56.6 -56.1 -55.5 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 32 33 36 41 44 47 48 40 34 29 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 19 19 18 20 16 12 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -37 -31 -22 -10 -16 -40 -48 -73 -73 -93 -111 -120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -32 -5 -26 -13 1 -19 -17 -60 -37 -23 -12 -32 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -8 -6 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -14 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1738 1712 1688 1725 1757 1888 1834 1659 1499 1411 1375 1322 1243 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.8 40.3 39.8 39.3 38.8 38.7 39.1 39.6 40.0 40.5 41.2 41.5 41.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.9 29.4 28.9 29.2 29.5 31.0 33.1 35.1 37.0 37.8 37.7 38.2 39.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 6 5 7 8 8 6 3 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -28. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. -4. -12. -17. -21. -24. -28. -30. -30. -30. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 40.8 29.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/23/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 47 47 48 52 46 38 33 29 26 22 20 20 20 22 18HR AGO 50 49 48 47 47 48 52 46 38 33 29 26 22 20 20 20 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 46 50 44 36 31 27 24 20 18 18 18 20 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 45 39 31 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT