* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HERMINE AL102022 09/25/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 26 31 37 44 51 60 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -2 -4 -8 -11 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 244 239 233 234 234 235 224 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 106 104 102 99 98 101 105 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 95 93 90 87 86 88 92 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 43 41 42 42 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 12 11 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 65 67 57 71 49 48 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 45 43 24 14 56 39 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 17 12 5 2 6 24 24 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 364 370 387 394 404 469 594 719 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.3 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.8 20.2 21.5 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -10. -25. -37. -49. -59. -65. -69. -77. -82. -85. -87.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -25. -35. -46. -56. -62. -67. -74. -78. -83. -84.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.5 20.4
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102022 HERMINE 09/25/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.27 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102022 HERMINE 09/25/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 28 27 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 27 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT