* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/25/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 42 40 38 35 33 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 42 40 38 35 33 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 26 36 34 36 20 11 7 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 312 342 328 323 305 314 347 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.4 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.9 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 99 100 103 105 109 113 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 85 84 84 86 88 92 95 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -57.5 -57.0 -56.7 -56.9 -56.3 -56.1 -56.0 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 1.1 0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 48 45 42 40 34 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 15 13 11 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -45 -36 -39 -60 -52 -67 -70 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -51 -46 -52 -38 -31 -29 -46 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -9 -4 -6 -12 -19 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1782 1694 1607 1547 1488 1398 1325 1256 1195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.9 38.9 38.9 38.8 38.6 38.3 37.6 37.0 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.3 36.5 37.6 38.6 40.4 42.7 45.3 47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 856 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -27. -29. -30. -31. -31. -30. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.9 34.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/25/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/25/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 42 40 38 35 33 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 43 41 39 37 34 32 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 35 32 30 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 28 26 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT