* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NEWTON EP152022 09/25/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 40 43 46 49 51
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 40 43 46 49 51
V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 15 14 14 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 1 -3 -6 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 209 202 191 180 170 157 171 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.1 28.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 147 150 156 147 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 51 50 50 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 2 15 23 43 50 62 71 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -2 0 -7 -10 -10 -25 -19 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 7 9 4 1 4 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 735 814 894 997 1101 1315 1544 1757 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.2 18.8 18.3 17.6 16.9 15.5 14.1 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.8 117.4 118.1 118.7 120.1 121.7 123.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 11 10 13 26 20 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 116.1
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 3.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.27 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.8% 8.9% 7.4% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 0.3% 2.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.2% 4.1% 3.5% 2.7% 0.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.7%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152022 NEWTON 09/25/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##