* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KARL AL142022 10/14/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 43 43 44 46 48 49 50 52 55 58 60 63 64
V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 38 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 36 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 21 18 15 12 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 293 299 287 284 295 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 148 145 139 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 134 132 127 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 11 9 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 55 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 0 -1 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -28 -18 -28 -20 -10 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 123 74 27 -14 -55 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.3 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 92.6 92.6 92.7 93.0 93.3 93.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 18 16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 22. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 24.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.7 92.6
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/14/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.0% 9.5% 8.5% 6.3% 10.1% 10.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 13.6% 24.5% 23.2% 9.2% 3.4% 13.2% 13.4% 10.8%
Bayesian: 0.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Consensus: 6.8% 13.6% 11.1% 6.0% 3.2% 7.8% 8.0% 3.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/14/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/14/2022 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 38 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 40 39 40 35 31 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
12HR AGO 40 37 36 31 27 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT