* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARTIN AL162022 11/02/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 61 66 69 83 91 80 68 56 44 29 23 18 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 61 66 69 83 91 80 68 56 44 29 23 18 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 60 64 71 71 60 47 44 46 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 24 22 19 24 33 38 32 12 13 22 26 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 1 -1 14 12 -2 -4 2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 228 240 212 197 200 193 183 203 198 229 244 245 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.5 25.1 25.0 25.2 24.1 19.0 11.3 9.7 7.9 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 108 111 104 85 73 67 62 59 60 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 96 100 96 81 72 65 61 58 59 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.6 -57.9 -58.6 -58.7 -56.8 -54.6 -52.3 -49.5 -51.7 -51.7 -49.5 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.2 2.7 5.2 5.0 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 41 47 54 63 63 58 66 57 75 71 71 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 27 30 35 53 57 48 39 32 27 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 47 68 66 115 196 239 296 260 160 142 221 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 26 23 78 102 66 16 55 73 38 21 21 23 -65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 -1 3 9 -1 -148 20 -11 -22 -19 5 8 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1270 1234 1189 1086 1030 1030 1435 1404 1468 1456 1557 1508 1268 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.6 36.1 37.5 38.8 43.8 52.0 57.8 59.3 59.8 59.8 58.8 57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 54.2 52.7 51.2 48.8 46.5 40.6 33.5 31.4 34.8 35.4 33.5 33.8 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 18 23 28 40 38 19 7 2 3 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -24. -25. -26.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. 9. 4. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 29. 38. 27. 17. 6. -2. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 33. 41. 30. 18. 6. -6. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.1 54.2
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.15 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 8.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 61 66 69 83 91 80 68 56 44 29 23 18 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 50 49 52 57 62 65 79 87 76 64 52 40 25 19 DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 56 59 73 81 70 58 46 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 48 62 70 59 47 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT