* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTIN AL162022 11/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 82 83 84 80 67 52 38 26 19 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 82 83 84 80 67 52 38 26 19 22 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 82 88 89 83 65 48 41 40 41 43 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 28 30 37 40 18 5 4 2 5 10 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 8 13 15 15 -3 1 7 7 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 199 185 185 203 163 204 162 62 322 279 258 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.2 20.2 14.4 10.0 9.7 10.3 12.2 13.2 11.3 11.2 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 105 107 88 76 67 64 65 67 70 67 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 103 84 74 65 62 63 65 67 65 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.3 -58.4 -57.4 -54.5 -50.1 -45.3 -46.7 -48.0 -48.0 -49.0 -49.9 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 3.5 6.4 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.3 3.3 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 61 56 59 66 52 73 78 75 83 83 83 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 32 39 46 58 53 42 33 26 20 17 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 86 135 180 222 351 345 334 280 271 216 212 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 111 42 52 3 69 44 27 11 10 18 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -29 -13 -12 6 -5 14 6 -4 1 23 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1229 1179 1178 1091 1213 1309 1338 1343 1091 699 467 478 749 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.1 37.4 38.6 43.1 47.6 53.6 54.7 56.4 54.1 54.4 57.5 59.6 60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.9 46.3 43.8 40.2 36.6 35.9 35.6 30.7 26.7 20.7 14.3 13.3 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 37 52 40 18 10 13 15 20 16 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 21 CX,CY: 18/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -20. -28. -36. -42. -47. -52. -56. -60. -61. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -6. -4. -1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 7. 12. 24. 25. 14. 3. -7. -16. -21. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 5. -8. -23. -37. -49. -56. -53. -57. -61. -64. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 36.1 48.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 39.0% 20.0% 27.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 9( 20) 9( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 81 82 83 84 80 67 52 38 26 19 22 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 78 79 75 62 47 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 74 70 57 42 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 67 63 50 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT