* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARTIN AL162022 11/03/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 79 81 82 74 61 47 33 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 79 81 82 74 61 47 33 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 75 79 80 78 73 60 47 42 42 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 31 30 30 38 31 13 8 2 4 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 9 13 17 2 -3 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 196 200 207 210 191 152 181 125 304 268 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.5 21.8 20.4 13.8 11.2 9.3 9.7 10.9 12.8 12.5 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 109 95 89 76 71 64 64 68 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 105 90 85 74 70 63 62 66 68 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.5 -58.6 -55.3 -53.5 -49.1 -46.0 -46.9 -46.9 -48.8 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -1.3 1.8 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.0 2.2 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 65 63 61 79 76 80 77 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 38 43 49 55 46 37 29 21 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 88 123 144 213 255 338 362 306 205 161 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 94 56 38 12 82 77 55 39 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -12 37 93 87 -12 4 19 10 -1 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1116 1102 1258 1242 1348 1344 1449 1183 532 216 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 38.0 41.0 43.9 48.0 52.1 56.1 56.2 55.8 54.6 55.7 58.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 46.3 41.9 37.5 36.1 34.8 35.6 32.4 28.2 18.1 11.7 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 37 44 41 42 31 11 10 21 23 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 28 CX,CY: 21/ 18
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -30. -37. -44. -49. -53. -56. -60. -61. -63. -63.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. -11. -16.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 4. 8. 13. 20. 16. 6. -5. -16. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. -1. -14. -28. -42. -54. -59. -62. -66. -70. -73. -76.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 38.0 46.3
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 79 79 81 82 74 61 47 33 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 75 74 76 76 78 79 71 58 44 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 73 74 66 53 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 68 60 47 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT