* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NICOLE AL172022 11/09/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 61 63 64 63 55 45 35 33 29 25 21 18 17 N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 61 63 48 35 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 63 64 50 35 29 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 25 30 24 24 25 19 21 10 30 47 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 1 4 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 230 251 252 236 232 240 227 220 190 211 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.9 27.5 27.9 27.5 27.1 25.7 23.7 20.7 19.4 16.0 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 123 130 135 130 126 112 97 84 83 78 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 107 113 119 116 113 100 88 78 79 75 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.9 -54.0 -52.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 51 54 62 65 70 67 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 30 31 30 24 20 19 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 137 140 134 129 124 100 74 71 96 203 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 25 31 42 27 88 105 70 153 83 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 7 13 12 17 14 25 20 -24 -74 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 571 481 392 273 154 -81 -29 -200 -300 -155 -86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.7 29.7 32.9 36.7 41.9 48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 74.3 75.2 76.1 77.3 78.5 81.3 83.1 83.0 80.1 74.6 67.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 11 12 12 14 19 28 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 21 30 40 35 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -12. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. -32. -33.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -8. -13. -16. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. -0. -10. -20. -22. -26. -30. -34. -37. -38. -41.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.3 74.3
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.26 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 13.6% 8.9% 8.5% 6.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.7% 5.6% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 61 63 48 35 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS
18HR AGO 55 54 57 58 60 45 32 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS
12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 39 26 20 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 DIS
6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT