* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NICOLE AL172022 11/09/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 63 62 56 51 39 36 32 29 26 23 21 18 16
V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 48 41 31 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 49 41 30 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 24 25 30 29 21 19 18 30 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 253 242 238 241 227 228 228 210 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.0 27.4 27.4 27.4 25.7 24.2 21.5 19.4 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 130 130 112 100 87 83 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 121 116 116 117 100 90 81 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.5 1.2 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 54 61 64 67 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 30 32 30 26 24 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 137 124 127 104 102 83 82 110 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 55 25 50 64 115 83 139 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 11 13 19 35 19 23 24 33 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 393 264 135 19 -81 3 -214 -293 -124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.7 27.2 27.7 29.5 32.2 36.3 41.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 76.1 77.4 78.7 80.0 81.3 83.4 83.4 80.2 75.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 12 12 18 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 42 37 63 36 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -4. -9. -21. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -42. -44.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.6 76.1
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.22 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.0% 8.2% 8.2% 5.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.6% 5.3% 3.4% 3.0% 2.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/2022 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 62 48 41 31 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 46 39 29 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 42 35 25 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 36 29 19 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT