* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL892023 02/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 45 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 54 45 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 53 45 37 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 75 67 62 63 59 56 62 74 80 73 68 67 62 58 47 48 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 12 13 13 9 6 -9 -4 3 3 8 9 15 23 21 24 SHEAR DIR 278 277 272 273 277 270 261 254 257 252 243 235 229 231 238 220 232 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 112 112 111 109 111 115 116 117 120 122 122 121 123 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 106 103 103 102 100 104 112 113 114 116 118 120 119 123 118 115 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 29 31 31 35 38 35 37 30 29 30 38 44 46 48 49 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -29 -41 -41 -41 -51 -21 -11 18 30 36 35 34 27 17 3 -3 200 MB DIV -10 -4 -22 -5 -20 -11 9 -49 -71 -3 18 49 54 63 60 71 43 700-850 TADV 16 16 11 15 17 -2 -8 -18 -11 -8 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 2 7 LAND (KM) 689 672 715 769 831 937 960 849 625 465 343 329 380 483 604 771 926 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.7 15.9 14.9 13.2 11.0 9.3 8.0 7.6 7.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.1 56.0 55.6 55.2 54.1 53.2 52.5 52.1 51.8 51.6 51.1 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 5 5 5 6 8 11 10 8 4 4 6 7 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 23 28 19 10 9 3 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -15. -23. -29. -37. -45. -55. -66. -76. -80. -79. -73. -68. -64. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -24. -33. -50. -63. -74. -85. -94. -96. -94. -89. -83. -75. -73. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.9 55.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL892023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 65.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.7% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL892023 TEST 02/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL892023 TEST 02/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 54 45 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 50 41 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 47 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT