* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882023 02/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 55 52 38 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 55 52 38 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 58 54 50 41 34 30 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 49 51 57 53 56 65 73 75 73 61 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 8 16 12 14 18 21 22 16 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 225 228 216 222 234 244 248 269 287 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 14.4 17.3 11.8 5.0 0.6 3.8 5.0 6.9 9.2 8.3 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 72 79 73 70 68 67 69 72 73 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 69 75 71 69 N/A N/A 68 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 -55.4 -56.6 -58.2 -59.2 -59.7 -59.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.3 0.2 1.8 2.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 62 57 48 55 62 70 71 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 30 28 28 24 22 19 16 16 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 170 203 236 256 216 82 65 37 66 131 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 181 132 120 94 81 61 48 46 28 -24 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 37 47 -63 -127 -158 -19 26 25 38 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 376 368 352 272 40 436 972 1280 516 166 -494 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.5 42.2 44.4 46.6 50.2 52.9 56.2 58.9 59.6 58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.8 63.6 59.8 56.0 52.6 47.5 40.8 29.7 14.5 -1.9 -14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 30 34 34 30 23 30 41 44 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 18 CX,CY: 17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 837 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -25. -28. -31. -35. -38. -41. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -23. -35. -48. -55. -62. -71. -81. -95.-103.-108.-113. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -15. -15. -13. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 21. 28. 35. 40. 41. 42. 42. 40. 33. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -17. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -5. -8. -22. -40. -57. -71. -76. -77. -86. -94.-106.-114.-123.-129. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.3 66.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882023 TEST 02/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882023 TEST 02/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882023 TEST 02/13/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 58 55 52 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 56 53 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 50 36 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT