* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP882023 02/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 50 39 30 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 61 50 39 30 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 58 49 42 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 59 56 53 49 46 41 40 37 36 43 35 46 41 41 62 63 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 2 3 -2 10 1 13 10 -14 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 239 244 249 248 248 244 240 243 257 250 258 274 282 261 261 267 278 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 132 131 129 130 132 133 133 135 137 136 133 130 128 126 123 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -54.4 -54.5 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 38 38 34 34 33 35 34 39 38 48 51 54 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 0 -3 -9 -16 -18 -18 -16 -17 -7 10 25 29 35 36 24 200 MB DIV 37 26 27 15 1 -4 -30 -20 -33 2 -10 -41 -37 -39 5 21 24 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 931 1064 1156 1155 1172 1217 1293 1367 1450 1545 1663 1859 2098 2288 2432 2567 2727 LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.3 5.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 99.2 100.1 100.9 101.7 103.3 105.0 107.0 109.3 111.5 113.5 115.7 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 8 8 8 9 11 11 10 11 12 13 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 10 8 4 1 2 4 4 7 15 10 11 12 13 11 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -16. -25. -31. -39. -42. -42. -37. -32. -29. -31. -33. -30. -27. -20. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -21. -20. -19. -17. -15. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -20. -31. -40. -55. -64. -69. -68. -65. -65. -70. -73. -74. -70. -65. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 5.2 98.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP882023 TEST 02/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 527.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP882023 TEST 02/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##