* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP892023 02/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 47 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 60 47 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 56 47 39 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 55 57 60 65 60 70 66 74 71 59 50 54 63 69 85 99 109 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 3 12 -5 5 -6 -7 4 14 12 3 4 0 -9 -36 SHEAR DIR 267 279 285 289 294 298 305 303 303 292 279 264 258 253 245 234 243 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.0 24.3 23.5 18.9 15.4 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 128 129 129 128 127 120 113 110 109 105 110 104 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.9 -56.4 -56.6 -57.1 -57.2 -57.6 -57.8 -57.6 -58.0 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 54 58 64 65 73 67 68 63 65 61 53 44 50 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -28 -36 -35 -28 -37 -42 -45 -45 -53 -47 -38 -45 7 34 27 -5 200 MB DIV -36 -56 -36 -56 -44 -83 -105 -118 -19 54 86 106 58 51 35 101 66 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 5 6 13 14 11 10 7 2 0 -1 11 11 5 -2 LAND (KM) 2495 2559 2607 2634 2640 2634 2660 2638 2491 2471 2386 2093 1675 1098 288 -291 -932 LAT (DEG N) 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 11.2 12.1 13.1 14.5 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.8 126.0 127.0 127.9 129.4 131.0 132.3 133.2 133.0 131.7 129.3 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 10 17 23 31 42 34 30 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 3 2 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. -27. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -17. -28. -36. -49. -58. -63. -62. -57. -55. -60. -63. -64. -67. -73. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -9. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -23. -36. -48. -67. -82. -94. -99. -99.-100.-107.-111.-113.-117.-126.-140. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 4.6 123.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP892023 TEST 02/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -45.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 59.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP892023 TEST 02/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##