* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL892023 02/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 71 60 51 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 71 60 51 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 68 60 52 40 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 52 51 49 50 55 69 56 52 34 30 19 27 29 39 36 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 4 3 -3 -9 0 0 2 1 6 4 -3 -6 3 15 19 SHEAR DIR 269 264 263 262 257 255 253 254 260 258 251 218 189 171 151 172 194 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.5 25.5 24.5 25.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 28.1 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 116 119 119 111 102 106 171 170 169 135 125 125 126 125 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 102 108 113 115 109 101 105 171 170 169 135 123 124 126 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 4 8 3 9 3 9 3 9 700-500 MB RH 33 31 33 33 31 35 39 44 47 50 55 65 65 73 71 78 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -46 -37 -19 -8 11 31 50 67 74 79 84 83 85 50 31 28 200 MB DIV -27 -39 -4 16 24 -13 -30 -1 -33 -24 -20 -2 7 65 91 44 -52 700-850 TADV 1 -10 -9 -7 -6 -11 -1 -4 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 501 500 456 380 300 111 -10 -135 -347 -482 -611 -590 -588 -621 -690 -766 -832 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 14.9 14.2 13.4 11.7 10.4 9.2 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.6 4.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.8 61.0 61.1 61.4 61.9 63.7 66.1 68.3 70.0 71.1 71.7 72.1 72.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 6 8 10 14 13 11 9 8 6 4 3 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 6 11 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 8 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -9. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -16. -25. -33. -48. -55. -58. -57. -54. -48. -41. -32. -25. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -20. -29. -39. -59. -72. -81. -81. -79. -70. -63. -56. -47. -39. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.3 60.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL892023 TEST 02/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 708.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL892023 TEST 02/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL892023 TEST 02/14/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 71 60 51 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 68 59 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 67 57 37 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 60 40 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT