* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP882023 02/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 61 49 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 72 61 49 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 69 59 51 40 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 59 54 49 49 47 43 39 32 41 35 37 45 35 40 56 49 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 -1 -2 -5 0 8 5 8 7 3 13 5 -7 8 20 SHEAR DIR 244 249 246 247 245 242 245 263 258 253 265 282 270 256 268 256 253 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 128 128 129 130 133 134 134 137 136 137 135 131 127 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -53.4 -54.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.8 -55.5 -55.3 -56.1 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 39 38 37 36 35 32 31 32 31 35 35 38 47 53 55 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 -16 -22 -24 -30 -31 -33 -30 -24 -8 6 9 5 -7 -25 -34 200 MB DIV 25 35 39 10 13 16 -23 -47 -48 -5 -29 -11 -17 -21 47 65 36 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 -1 1 3 2 1 0 -1 0 1 2 3 7 8 LAND (KM) 1110 1107 1105 1116 1141 1207 1262 1337 1422 1495 1651 1855 2000 2111 2164 2207 2268 LAT (DEG N) 5.9 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.7 101.6 102.4 103.2 104.9 106.7 109.0 111.3 113.3 115.3 117.6 120.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 8 8 8 11 12 11 10 11 12 11 9 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 3 1 1 1 2 3 4 12 9 8 8 6 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -8. -18. -27. -35. -43. -45. -42. -37. -30. -27. -30. -31. -29. -27. -21. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -20. -19. -17. -15. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -19. -31. -41. -57. -69. -74. -74. -72. -73. -79. -82. -84. -82. -77. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 5.9 99.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP882023 TEST 02/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 643.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP882023 TEST 02/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##