* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882023 02/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 62 55 41 30 23 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 62 55 41 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 68 62 56 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 27 16 32 46 51 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 28 15 23 29 26 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 201 202 212 226 262 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.6 17.8 16.3 12.5 9.0 10.2 7.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 82 79 75 73 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 79 77 73 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.9 -56.5 -58.3 -59.1 -61.1 -62.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 4.5 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 52 56 57 58 62 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 20 16 15 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 167 171 110 36 26 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 55 65 77 62 19 -134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -95 -87 -104 -58 -66 -116 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1200 1168 1165 1313 1364 272 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.2 39.3 43.1 47.4 51.1 55.5 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.2 42.9 39.2 35.3 30.0 13.2 -6.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 40 49 51 52 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 19 CX,CY: 19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 989 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -22. -29. -36. -42. -46. -50. -53. -57. -58. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -17. -21. -25. -26. -28. -32. -36. -41. -45. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 21. 25. 31. 36. 38. 40. 42. 43. 40. 34. 30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -13. -20. -34. -45. -52. -57. -58. -59. -60. -62. -66. -69. -75. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 37.2 46.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882023 TEST 02/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882023 TEST 02/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882023 TEST 02/15/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 70 62 55 41 29 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 63 56 42 30 31 31 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 63 56 42 30 31 31 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 58 44 32 33 33 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT