* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEST EP882023 02/15/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 80 67 57 38 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 100 91 80 67 57 38 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 100 95 86 76 66 50 38 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 56 51 51 47 40 32 31 31 31 34 27 42 52 54 67 73 70
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -8 -4 0 9 13 8 13 10 30 17 18 21 19 12 -2
SHEAR DIR 247 246 240 236 232 228 226 255 258 283 270 248 257 281 280 299 311
SST (C) 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.6 27.9 26.7 25.6 23.4 18.7 19.2 15.1 15.0 20.5 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 143 143 146 147 150 144 131 120 99 66 68 70 70 75 124
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.3 -54.8 -55.6 -56.2 -57.4 -58.2 -58.5 -58.6 -59.1 -59.3 -59.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 8 5 7 3 4 0 1 0 2 0 1 2
700-500 MB RH 27 24 23 21 21 19 16 17 18 21 24 32 30 24 38 45 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -11 -34 -36 -15 -14 -26 -73 -95 -99 -123 -116 -30 -33 -63 -113 -108 -97
200 MB DIV 4 12 -3 -27 -42 -4 -28 -41 -6 -45 -26 2 -5 36 4 -36 -100
700-850 TADV 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 -7 -10 -17 14 95 4 84 39
LAND (KM) 631 536 494 483 480 503 522 511 486 460 304 23 -517 -64 -191 604 1334
LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.7 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.3 15.7 17.5 20.2 24.1 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.3 100.5 100.7 101.1 102.3 103.8 105.7 107.5 108.9 109.5 107.6 102.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 4 4 5 7 9 11 11 12 17 25 32 43 52 50 42
HEAT CONTENT 10 12 15 16 16 16 18 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 16 CX,CY: 0/ 16
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 0.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -34. -40. -45. -51. -57. -63. -66.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -10. -22. -32. -39. -44. -42. -37. -31. -26. -24. -28. -35. -41. -48. -53. -57.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -13. -10. -8. -6. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -9. -20. -33. -43. -62. -76. -83. -85. -88. -93.-106.-118.-128.-139.-149.-155.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 10.7 100.1
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP882023 TEST 02/15/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1106.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP882023 TEST 02/15/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##